The Intent is High. The Inventory is Not: Finding Your Center in a Tight Market.
I recently started a ceramics class on Piedmont Avenue. I’ve quickly learned that if you aren't centered, the clay wins. It wobbles out of control. It’s a focused, delicate balance; you can’t be timid, but you can’t be aggressive either.
Finding that center is heavy work right now. With the weight of global events and economic shifts, it’s only logical to feel a sense of gravity. These are real reasons for hesitation, and they deserve a steady hand.
But even with that reality, the Bay isn't pausing. On the ground, it feels less like a typical real estate cycle and more like the opening night of a restaurant the whole neighborhood has been waiting for. You know the one, the place you peered into the windows of for months?
Well, the doors are finally open, but the reservation book is full. Coming from a professional kitchen background, I know that energy well; where “interest” shifts to “intensity”.
Coming from a professional kitchen background, I know that energy well. When demand is high and inventory is fixed, the atmosphere shifts from "interest" to "intensity." In SF, Berkeley, and Oakland, we are currently in that backlog.
To help you find your own center amidst the noise, below are the Three Things That Matter this month.
P.S. I share a lot of these insights in real time on LinkedIn. If you want to stay a step ahead, I would love to have you join me there.
The Market Compass: April Intel
When the "clay" of the market feels like it’s wobbling, I look at the data to find the center. Here is the briefing I’m sharing with my clients this week:
What people are asking me right now:
"With global tensions and rates where they are, is anyone actually making a move?"
The short answer is a resounding yes. In San Francisco, the median house price hit $2,150,000 in March an 18% jump from last year. The median price for a condo is now $1.35M, marking the second-highest monthly level ever recorded.
The result has been intense competition:
* the luxury market is dominating sales across both property types
* majority of homes are selling over asking price
* overbidding has reached or tied historic highs
* days on market are at the fastest pace since 2022
* Say goodbye to Price reductions for now; they have fallen dramatically
As I’ve been discussing on LinkedIn, high-intent buyers are looking at the narrowing gap between renting and owning. When you factor in the tax advantages that lower your net monthly cost, the "net price" of a home is often much more competitive than it looks on paper.
Oakland & Berkeley are in a "Supply Crunch."
We’re seeing a real divergence here: the number of homes going into contract is up, but the number of actual listings is dropping. As I mentioned on LinkedIn, it’s a lot like the AI sector right now; massive demand chasing a very limited amount of "infrastructure."
In our case, that infrastructure is the houses on our blocks. The result is faster timelines and almost zero price reductions. If you’re looking at single-family homes in the Hills or prime Berkeley, it’s definitely that "opening night" intensity, while the condo market remains a bit more of a manageable entry point. This means if you know anyone looking to get into the market as a first-time buyer, this is the window and the area for them.
The "suburban buffer" is disappearing: Lamorinda and North Contra Costa
Throughout Lamorinda and North Contra Costa, the spring market is following that same "opening night" trajectory. We’re seeing a real squeeze as inventory drops compared to last year. In Lamorinda, the median price has climbed to $2.23M as the competition for limited space heats up.
Even in markets like Martinez and Pleasant Hill, solid demand is pushing median prices toward the $1M mark. Across the board, price reductions are becoming rare, and if a house is turn-key, the competitive bidding is officially back.
My Social Snapshot
I’ve been diving deeper into the logic behind these market shifts on LinkedIn. Join the conversation there for the full breakdown:
• AI & Real Estate: Why chips and houses have the same supply problem.
• The Rent vs. Buy Gap: Why the narrowing margin matters for your 2026 strategy.
• The Hidden Discount: Breaking down the tax advantages that make current rates more manageable.
Follow me on LinkedIn for the full updates
Shine a Light
This last Monday was the Oasis for Girls Shine Gala at Salesforce Tower. As a Board Member, it’s a night of reflection and intention for the future around the roles we play in leadership and meaningful community impact.
Seeing our young women of color in San Francisco claim their space and lead with such confidence is a powerful reminder of why we build community in the first place. Real estate is about houses, but "home" is about the people and the support systems we create within them. That’s what Oasis has been for our community for 27 yrs and counting. If you’re looking for a way to invest in the next generation of Bay Area leaders, I’d love to tell you more about the work we’re doing at Oasis.
To the bright future we create ahead,
Fontaine
Realtor | DRE# 02198398
The Fitzpatrick Team at Compass
