Buyer Demand is Up! Inventory Didn't Get the Memo.
What people are asking me right now. Over the past few weeks I have had a lot of conversations about what is really happening in this market. Not the headlines, just real people trying to figure out if now is the right time, the wrong time, or just the most confusing time.
To be real, it can feel like all of it, all at once! But here is 1 thing that can bring clarity: the right strategy exists before the search even starts.
I’ve been sharing a lot about things most buyers don’t realize. IE: Most buyers were never told about using stock as collateral instead of selling it, how RSUs are viewed by lenders, or what a recent job change can do to your loan timeline. These are not edge cases in the Bay Area. But they only work if you know to ask before you need them.
The window is real. The most recent news is that rates have dipped back into the 5% range. But, inventory stays tight. What does this mean for you?
Renters: the gap between what you pay in rent and a mortgage payment is much closer than you think.
Homeowners: the equity you have built might already be enough to fund your next move. Yes, you will trade a lower rate for a higher one. But a larger down payment means a smaller loan. The difference is often closer than people expect.
The question is whether the rate you are protecting is worth staying put for.
Think of it like a product gap. By the time it is obvious to everyone, the early movers are already on version 2.0.
The process can work against you. Decision fatigue is real. Timelines get tighter. That is usually when smart people start making calls they would not otherwise make. The antidote in this situation is not being tougher or “resilient”, it is having the right information before the pressure even shows up.
The more you understand your options before you need them, the better your decisions become when it counts.
I share a lot of it in real time on LinkedIn. If you want to stay a step ahead, I would love to have you there.
The Market Intelligence Report
The spring market is here and it is moving faster than everyone’s AI Roadmap.
Here is what that actually means for you:
More buyers are competing for fewer homes
Well priced properties are selling faster and often over asking
The rent vs. buy math is quietly shifting in ways that are not obvious yet
Waiting for things to settle is its own kind of decision
One variable worth watching: global uncertainty has a way of influencing rates and sentiment before anyone sees it coming. No signs of softening locally yet but the buyers who are prepared before that changes are the ones who come out ahead.
Below is a closer look at what we are seeing across the markets we follow most closely.
San Francisco:
I remember when the condo market in San Francisco felt untouchable. Everyone wanted in. (I went in!) Then the pandemic hit, remote work changed everything, and for a few years those same units sat longer than anyone expected.
That era feels like it is closing.
Buyer demand is high, inventory is extremely limited, and competition is fierce. Luxury sales increased more than 200% year over year in February, the highest level ever recorded for that month. That is not a market blip. That is serious wealth creation tied directly to the AI and tech boom playing out right now reshaping who is buying and at what price point.
Single family homes continue to outperform condos, though the condo market is making a quiet comeback. If you have been watching that segment waiting for a signal, this might be it.
One thing to keep in mind: last year's biggest gains came later in the cycle, driven by the AI surge rather than the traditional spring window. The seasonal playbook is a useful guide. It is not a guarantee.
Oakland-Berkeley:
Oakland and Berkeley have always had their own identity. The culture, the food scene, the architecture, the neighborhoods that feel like actual communities. For a lot of buyers this is not a stepping stone. It is exactly where they want to be.
I know because that was me. Four years of searching, eventually making the move from SF to Oakland and never looking back. I bought at the top of the market and watched prices dip for the next few years. But here is the thing about Oakland right now: She's coming back. And the people who held on are starting to see it.
Demand is rising, inventory is tight, and overbidding is becoming more common on well positioned homes. This market rewards specificity though. Single family homes are significantly outperforming condos. Higher end neighborhoods are seeing stronger demand.
The buyers doing well here are not casting wide nets. They came in knowing exactly what they were targeting.
The gap between Oakland and Berkeley pricing versus San Francisco is real but it is narrowing in certain pockets. Knowing where the value still lives requires street level knowledge, not just a zip code search.
Lamorinda + North Contra Costa County:
For a lot of Bay Area families, Lamorinda is a goal. The conversation usually starts when kids hit school age and parents start doing the research. Top rated schools, more space, a slower pace without leaving the Bay Area behind. The desire has always been there. The challenge has always been price.
The buyers showing up here right now are the ones who finally did the math and made it work. And most of them will tell you it was the decision they wish they had made sooner.
North Contra Costa, including Martinez and Pleasant Hill, is a different conversation. With hybrid and remote work still shaping how people think about location, the old calculus on commute distance has shifted. Buyers here are not compromising. They are optimizing for what actually matters to their family right now.
Inventory is limited across both areas and well priced homes are moving quickly. No signs of demand softening. If anything the buyers showing up here are more prepared and decisive than they were a year ago.
