What is the Oakland housing market like right now?

An old coworker texted me yesterday: "Oakland prices are down 8%, but should I still wait for rates to drop?"

Here's what I told them. The opportunity cost of waiting is 𝗯𝗶𝗴𝗴𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗸.

Oakland's market isn't down, it's 𝗱𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘁. Each neighborhood is playing by 𝗱𝗶𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗿𝘂𝗹𝗲𝘀 right now. And that creates a window 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗯𝘂𝘆𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴.

Sept 2025 reality:

→ Piedmont: $2.5M–$3M | 12 days | Bidding wars

→ Oakland Hills: $1.2M–$1.5M | 28 days | Softening at edges

→ Lower Hills: ~$950K | 22 days | Market balancing out

→ Lake to Dowtown: $700K | 60+ days | Most negotiating room since 2019

If you're waiting for rates to drop from 6% to 5%, you're betting on uncertain timing, flat prices, and low competition. 

That's a lot of IFs.

Meanwhile in slower pockets RIGHT NOW:

→ Lower sale prices (less competition)

→ Fewer bidding wars

→ Actual negotiating power

Critical: Oakland historically lists below to create bidding wars. As an Oakland resident, I know this playbook well.

A 5% price reduction TODAY beats waiting 18 months for a 1-2% rate drop and the feeding frenzy.

You can refinance rates. 𝗬𝗼𝘂 𝗰𝗮𝗻'𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗽𝘂𝗿𝗰𝗵𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲.

𝗛𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗯𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝘄𝗮𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗱𝗿𝗼𝗽 before buying?